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US price data and ongoing tariff disputes between the US and EU are influencing silver prices, with investors hopeful for negotiations to avoid harmful tariffs. Key economic indicators, including the PCE deflator, are expected to provide insights into monetary policy, while chart technicals suggest a focus on the $34 mark and potential upward movement towards October highs.
Asian stocks fell for a fourth consecutive day as stronger-than-expected US jobs data dampened expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, while oil prices surged to a four-month high following new US sanctions on Russia's oil industry. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.1%, with significant declines in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea, as Chinese shares continued to slide despite record export figures. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against major currencies, and bond yields rose in response to the shifting market dynamics.
This week, major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America are set to report earnings, alongside tech and healthcare firms like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and UnitedHealth Group. Key economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index will be released, providing insights into inflation trends, while several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak ahead of the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, proposes that the U.S. could strategically accumulate 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) to offset a significant portion of its debt, potentially clearing 70% of domestically held liabilities by 2050. He emphasizes the need for Bitcoin to gain market acceptance and stability to be considered a viable reserve asset, akin to gold. Despite skepticism from some financial leaders, Ju believes that establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could enhance Bitcoin's credibility and role in global finance.
U.S. markets experienced optimism on November 25 as President-elect Trump’s tariff plans led to a dollar rally. He announced a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on China, citing illegal immigration and drug trade concerns. Additionally, Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari hinted at a potential rate cut, while discussions for a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel progressed, impacting global markets.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari indicated that considering a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the December meeting is still reasonable. He noted the economy's resilience against higher rates may suggest a higher neutral rate, prompting questions about the effectiveness of current monetary policy in cooling demand and its impact on inflation.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari indicated that a further interest-rate cut is still a viable option for the central bank's December meeting. He stated that considering a 25-basis-point reduction remains a reasonable discussion among policymakers.
The Swiss stock exchange closed lower, with the SMI down 0.70% at 8206.20 points, following concerns over potential U.S. interest rate hikes. Major banks like UBS and Credit Suisse faced significant losses, while defensive stocks like Nestlé and Novartis attempted to mitigate the downturn. Market experts anticipate a turbulent period ahead after recent volatility in U.S. markets.
UBS analysts indicate that U.S. monetary policy remains tight, with a potential interest rate hike in December still under discussion. Recent data shows a 2.6% year-on-year rise in consumer spending for October, aligning with expectations, while inflation appears to be moving in the right direction. UBS suggests that the current economic conditions do not warrant a highly restrictive monetary policy and recommends reallocating excess cash into high-quality bonds for better portfolio income.
UBS indicates that a December rate cut by the Fed is likely, as recent comments from officials suggest that current interest rates remain restrictive. Despite concerns about inflation and a stronger economy, the bank believes the disinflation trend will persist, allowing for continued easing. Investors are advised to consider quality fixed income strategies to enhance portfolio income.
Neel Kashkari
People
The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
silver price outlook influenced by us tariff dispute and economic data
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10:14 26.03.2025
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